Value for money is easier to understand or easier to come to an consensus of what it mean. But then, it could already have 4 interpretations:
1) price tag of $1, I get it for 50 cents during a sale. Groupon deals are value for money. More applicable to my wife.
2) something is intrinsically worth $1, I get it lower than $1. Stocks that will grow or at a discount to p/b. more applicable to investors
3) relative comparison, a pair of shoes that cost $100 is more value for money than $50 because it is more comfortable and last more than twice as long. More applicable to atas people who are shrew consumers.
4) serve a need, I wanted a BMW because it tells people I arrived. ATAS x2 people
Value of money?
What money buys. I always tell my pupils money has no value until it is spent. What is the value of $10 note? Is it $10? Nope, it is a high class coffee, or it can be a packet of seeds for poor rural people to grow. Which has a higher value of money?
Lets push this a bit? How much money so that u feel rich? Enough to stop work? Enough to do whatever u work? More money means more options, u can never do whatever u want unless u are filthy rich.
During my holiday, I feel rich, I didn't have to work, can afford to wake up late, talk a walk and go for breakfast follow by newspaper.
When my leave ends, and I start working like a dog, I felt poor, a slave to salary again. So I tried something out of the blue. I wake up half an hour earlier, went for breakfast at hawker before I start my day, given I am a fast eater, I can eat, read newspaper and see life passes by in the wee morning of the day. See those office girls gearing up for work, see those social escorts getting off work, see old lady selling tissue papers and touting them to FTs,
Saw the FT opening her wallet to get tissue, bringing a surprise smile to the old lady. Who says FTs is a bad thing?
Feeling richer just by waking up earlier by half an hour, value for money or value of money?
Saturday, March 29, 2014
A quick look at Venture
I was first alerted to Venture from a blogger's comment at ASSI. He mention about Venture, Hotung and Singpost. I have looked at SIngpost, didn't like Hotung business model (personal preference), so I decide to look at Venture.
I saw Venture has sustained a 50 cents dividend since 2005 and has a unbroken dividend records since 1993.
I then went further to look at its balance sheet. It is net cash company.
A renowned company that is net cash and is paying a yield of 6.7% at current price. Well, that really pips my interest.
First, some numbers.
It is not difficult to see why Venture's price is a shade of its formal glory days.
It is paying more than its earning of 47 cents in 2013. It is definitely not sustainable.
But I am not looking at Venture as a stalwart or slow grower (SPH or Singpost), but rather a cyclical play, just like YZJ and Golden Agri.
It is having +ve FCF for most of the years, the average of 13 years is 145 million, enough to pay the 50 cents dividends.
47 cents EPS is the lowest in its 13 years history!
Which begs the most important question, is Venture a has been? Just like Creative? Or could it recover? It you think it can recover, current valuation is hardly demanding. Forget about its glorious day, its average EPS is 70 cents, lets just take 60 cents as a target for the next 3-5 years. It will might be able to revert back to 55 cents dividend given out in 2011 and 2012.
I was reading their AR, jolting down notes about their products and customers. I did this by working backwards till 2009. I would go further back if I have the time. It seems 2009 is a watershed year, not because of the GFC but because that is the year the strategic shift from OEM to ODM gathers pace. Margin improve from the 4+ % in 2008 and 2009 to the 5-6% till now, the better years has past Venture.
Reading its ARs, Venture has been able to develop new products and launched them over the years, although earnings is horrible, but it seem their competencies and capabilities are intact. Almost every year from 2009, phrases like "gain new customers" and "gain market share" can be seen, although the numbers did not show the positive impact of these positive development. Most of the time, they do seem to deliver what they set to do, e.g. 2009-2010, they mention about developmental project on retail solutions, pay system, and in 2012-2013, they did roll out the POS products and the revenue did improve. I believe the POS products should be under the segment of retail solutions and industry. Of course, there are misses too, like they mention they make inroads into aerospace with an European company, but never heard of it since.
If capabilities is not an issue, how about costs? That seems to be a valid concern, since its margin has been going down for the past 3 years already. There are research report claiming Venture is on the cusp of recovery, as it has 4 sequential improving quarters in 2013. While, that is good news, I would usually read reports with a pinch of salt. 2H is traditional stronger.
Venture has been dubbed the bellwether of electronics industry in Singapore, and export numbers of electronics from Singapore is hardly strong since 2010, with the exception of 2012 Feb. (SOurce: IE singapore). SIngapore makes up 25% to 30% of its revenue.
Other risk or concerns include the fact the its CEO is already 72, there is risk of succession plan going wrong. Forummer from valuebuddies also highlighted Aberdeen constant selling in 2013. I would not be too concerned though, since Aberdeen has been net buyers in 2012, I guess some buying and selling in adjustment to Funds requirement is inevitable.
Assuming the Venture is able to recover, so what would be a good price to enter?
I would think using DCF of 3% growth and 9% discount as fair and 2% growth and 10% discount as conservative.
The price range: $5.3 to $7 (Both upper and lower price has MOS of 20% applied)
I welcome discussions to uncover further blind spots. The valuation would not apply if you think Venture will not recover, you should not touch it even if it goes to $5.3.
I saw Venture has sustained a 50 cents dividend since 2005 and has a unbroken dividend records since 1993.
I then went further to look at its balance sheet. It is net cash company.
A renowned company that is net cash and is paying a yield of 6.7% at current price. Well, that really pips my interest.
First, some numbers.
It is not difficult to see why Venture's price is a shade of its formal glory days.
It is paying more than its earning of 47 cents in 2013. It is definitely not sustainable.
But I am not looking at Venture as a stalwart or slow grower (SPH or Singpost), but rather a cyclical play, just like YZJ and Golden Agri.
It is having +ve FCF for most of the years, the average of 13 years is 145 million, enough to pay the 50 cents dividends.
47 cents EPS is the lowest in its 13 years history!
Which begs the most important question, is Venture a has been? Just like Creative? Or could it recover? It you think it can recover, current valuation is hardly demanding. Forget about its glorious day, its average EPS is 70 cents, lets just take 60 cents as a target for the next 3-5 years. It will might be able to revert back to 55 cents dividend given out in 2011 and 2012.
I was reading their AR, jolting down notes about their products and customers. I did this by working backwards till 2009. I would go further back if I have the time. It seems 2009 is a watershed year, not because of the GFC but because that is the year the strategic shift from OEM to ODM gathers pace. Margin improve from the 4+ % in 2008 and 2009 to the 5-6% till now, the better years has past Venture.
Reading its ARs, Venture has been able to develop new products and launched them over the years, although earnings is horrible, but it seem their competencies and capabilities are intact. Almost every year from 2009, phrases like "gain new customers" and "gain market share" can be seen, although the numbers did not show the positive impact of these positive development. Most of the time, they do seem to deliver what they set to do, e.g. 2009-2010, they mention about developmental project on retail solutions, pay system, and in 2012-2013, they did roll out the POS products and the revenue did improve. I believe the POS products should be under the segment of retail solutions and industry. Of course, there are misses too, like they mention they make inroads into aerospace with an European company, but never heard of it since.
If capabilities is not an issue, how about costs? That seems to be a valid concern, since its margin has been going down for the past 3 years already. There are research report claiming Venture is on the cusp of recovery, as it has 4 sequential improving quarters in 2013. While, that is good news, I would usually read reports with a pinch of salt. 2H is traditional stronger.
Venture has been dubbed the bellwether of electronics industry in Singapore, and export numbers of electronics from Singapore is hardly strong since 2010, with the exception of 2012 Feb. (SOurce: IE singapore). SIngapore makes up 25% to 30% of its revenue.
Other risk or concerns include the fact the its CEO is already 72, there is risk of succession plan going wrong. Forummer from valuebuddies also highlighted Aberdeen constant selling in 2013. I would not be too concerned though, since Aberdeen has been net buyers in 2012, I guess some buying and selling in adjustment to Funds requirement is inevitable.
Assuming the Venture is able to recover, so what would be a good price to enter?
I would think using DCF of 3% growth and 9% discount as fair and 2% growth and 10% discount as conservative.
The price range: $5.3 to $7 (Both upper and lower price has MOS of 20% applied)
I welcome discussions to uncover further blind spots. The valuation would not apply if you think Venture will not recover, you should not touch it even if it goes to $5.3.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Random thoughts: money and news
I have always been skeptical about analyst reports. Don't get me wrong, analyst reports are useful, and there are many with a lot of details and insights, but that is where the use end, one shouldn't read further into the buy or sell call or their target prices.
We need to understand that not all analyst reports are self-initiated, some are paid to do the reports.
I was rather surprised with the money section of today ST. There is only 2 articles on properties, whereas it is usually dominated by property news. It is not hard to see why. Singaporeans at large are attuned to property investing rather than companies investing. Many will think of property investment as a foolproof investment whereas if u mention stocks, they will either think of u as a guru or a gambler. ( this is my gut feel when communicating with many colleagues am friends, only 2-4 can exchange pointers on equity investing, but the "whole world" can talk about property investing. I wonder the taper off property news got anything to do with property cooling.
I read an article on a senior executive of bloomberg asking the journalists in china to focus on financial news and not others, as investigating journalism might not be useful in terms of generating sales on its terminal. They have previously run a article on how rich xi jinping is. Shortly after, there is a directive to state enterprise to stop subscribing to bloomberg terminals.
So, when I read, I always have the question: is this what they want us to know, or is this what happen?
But am I advocate total freedom of speech? No. Taiwan news is too dividing and sensational, US cannot stop snowden unless he stop his own leaks.
We just have to be more discerning, and encourage others to be critical thinker too. Be critical in our thinking, but not on people, we always tend to overshoot in our critiques of establishment, sometime to the extend of being unfair.
We need to understand that not all analyst reports are self-initiated, some are paid to do the reports.
I was rather surprised with the money section of today ST. There is only 2 articles on properties, whereas it is usually dominated by property news. It is not hard to see why. Singaporeans at large are attuned to property investing rather than companies investing. Many will think of property investment as a foolproof investment whereas if u mention stocks, they will either think of u as a guru or a gambler. ( this is my gut feel when communicating with many colleagues am friends, only 2-4 can exchange pointers on equity investing, but the "whole world" can talk about property investing. I wonder the taper off property news got anything to do with property cooling.
I read an article on a senior executive of bloomberg asking the journalists in china to focus on financial news and not others, as investigating journalism might not be useful in terms of generating sales on its terminal. They have previously run a article on how rich xi jinping is. Shortly after, there is a directive to state enterprise to stop subscribing to bloomberg terminals.
So, when I read, I always have the question: is this what they want us to know, or is this what happen?
But am I advocate total freedom of speech? No. Taiwan news is too dividing and sensational, US cannot stop snowden unless he stop his own leaks.
We just have to be more discerning, and encourage others to be critical thinker too. Be critical in our thinking, but not on people, we always tend to overshoot in our critiques of establishment, sometime to the extend of being unfair.
Random thoughts: superstitious me
Random thoughts series has nothing to do with investment or finance.
What I will write will sound real silly or superstitious to people, if u are offended by superstitious practices or people, stop reading now.
When my eyes twitch non-stop for a day, something bad will happen. Call me superstitious but it has 99% accuracy since I am 18.
Sometime when it didn't twitch that badly, the unlucky stuff can be just I cut myself, during army times, or fall sick.
The few times it twitch non-stop, and the things that followed really made me feel quite miserable.
I am a free-thinker, and I understand what come may, just take it in its stride. But when the unfortunate hits, it usually get to me quite badly.
I did told people about this weird habit I have, they always say I didn't have enough sleep or I am stressed. But as I said, its 99% accurate. I know some will say its对号入座, meaning because I think about it, that's why I relate it that way, and its just a coincidence . I am not lying when I think the last 2 time it happen, the 2 unfortunate incidents could have been avoided if not for 5-7 coincidences leading up to it. U have to be really sway, for things to turn out that way.
Predict misfortune but no way of stopping it, but it is a good thing to be mentally and emotional prepared. So it is a good thing? Nope, I rather not want that, it is a curse.
There was once in my workplace when something very important is lost. The consequence of that can be really serious. The staff involved is almost in tears, and given I am her supervisor I would Kena jialat jialat too. She keep asking me how how, super panicky, I told her relax, if something that bad is going to happen, that is no way my eyes will not twitch. She is not reassured and told me i have a weird way of comforting people. True enough, that important document was found shortly.
By the way, losing money in the stock market didn't count. I am ready for that when I invest, am will be calm even ifs counter fall 50%, I always thought losing money is the least sway thing la, but it was never about losing money, but something that will
Impact me quite deeply.
It sound like super power, isn't it? But it's one thing I would rather not have. What did I say 99%. There was once in my younger days, I keep telling people that I have this weird "power" which is 100% accurate ( then it was 100%accurate, scary right), and like because I told a lot of people about it, I seem to lose that ability for a while. They are times I really sway but my eyes never twitch and my eyes twitch an nothing happen. I am happy, good riddance, I can take it if something sway happen, but I can't stand the waiting for it to happen part, I dun usually have to wait long though. But a few years back, it is 100% accurate again. I told a lot of people about it, thinking that it will go away, but nope, this time round it doesn't work.
Superstitious me!! But I find this ability to know something bad is going to happen a curse!! Because that something bad happening doesn't have to happen to me, but will affect me nonetheless.
I have been twitching non- stop for 2 days already. I think I am down on luck? The super scary thing is I actually hit second prize for 4D for $1000!!! On Wednesday. I very seldom bet, ) maybe less than 5 times in a year?) but I was bored waiting for my wife the other day and remember seeing my birth date appear in two cars' plate no on the same day. I just got my bonus and think hey, just try me luck lor. I didn't even bother to check until the next day and I couldn't believe my eyes. How can I be lucky and sway the same time??!!
Maybe by blogging about it and let hundreds know will make it go away again. Hahahaha
Sorry if I offend anyone with my superstitious thoughts. But my eyes are still twitching as I blog...
What I will write will sound real silly or superstitious to people, if u are offended by superstitious practices or people, stop reading now.
When my eyes twitch non-stop for a day, something bad will happen. Call me superstitious but it has 99% accuracy since I am 18.
Sometime when it didn't twitch that badly, the unlucky stuff can be just I cut myself, during army times, or fall sick.
The few times it twitch non-stop, and the things that followed really made me feel quite miserable.
I am a free-thinker, and I understand what come may, just take it in its stride. But when the unfortunate hits, it usually get to me quite badly.
I did told people about this weird habit I have, they always say I didn't have enough sleep or I am stressed. But as I said, its 99% accurate. I know some will say its对号入座, meaning because I think about it, that's why I relate it that way, and its just a coincidence . I am not lying when I think the last 2 time it happen, the 2 unfortunate incidents could have been avoided if not for 5-7 coincidences leading up to it. U have to be really sway, for things to turn out that way.
Predict misfortune but no way of stopping it, but it is a good thing to be mentally and emotional prepared. So it is a good thing? Nope, I rather not want that, it is a curse.
There was once in my workplace when something very important is lost. The consequence of that can be really serious. The staff involved is almost in tears, and given I am her supervisor I would Kena jialat jialat too. She keep asking me how how, super panicky, I told her relax, if something that bad is going to happen, that is no way my eyes will not twitch. She is not reassured and told me i have a weird way of comforting people. True enough, that important document was found shortly.
By the way, losing money in the stock market didn't count. I am ready for that when I invest, am will be calm even ifs counter fall 50%, I always thought losing money is the least sway thing la, but it was never about losing money, but something that will
Impact me quite deeply.
It sound like super power, isn't it? But it's one thing I would rather not have. What did I say 99%. There was once in my younger days, I keep telling people that I have this weird "power" which is 100% accurate ( then it was 100%accurate, scary right), and like because I told a lot of people about it, I seem to lose that ability for a while. They are times I really sway but my eyes never twitch and my eyes twitch an nothing happen. I am happy, good riddance, I can take it if something sway happen, but I can't stand the waiting for it to happen part, I dun usually have to wait long though. But a few years back, it is 100% accurate again. I told a lot of people about it, thinking that it will go away, but nope, this time round it doesn't work.
Superstitious me!! But I find this ability to know something bad is going to happen a curse!! Because that something bad happening doesn't have to happen to me, but will affect me nonetheless.
I have been twitching non- stop for 2 days already. I think I am down on luck? The super scary thing is I actually hit second prize for 4D for $1000!!! On Wednesday. I very seldom bet, ) maybe less than 5 times in a year?) but I was bored waiting for my wife the other day and remember seeing my birth date appear in two cars' plate no on the same day. I just got my bonus and think hey, just try me luck lor. I didn't even bother to check until the next day and I couldn't believe my eyes. How can I be lucky and sway the same time??!!
Maybe by blogging about it and let hundreds know will make it go away again. Hahahaha
Sorry if I offend anyone with my superstitious thoughts. But my eyes are still twitching as I blog...
Monday, March 17, 2014
Quick look at SIngpost
Here is a short analysis of SIngpost.
Not vested, but interested to accumulate at the right price. This is a follow up from my previous post
Here are some numbers:
While margin is getting worse, do note that revenue and OP of the cursed mail sector is not falling off a cliff, it is not even on a continuous decline. Net profits is falling, but that did not tell the full story, volume and revenue are still strong.
Look at FCF, the av. for 9 years is 160 mio. The weakest year of 130 mio is still enough to sustain the 6.5 cents DPS. 6.5 DPS need 120 mio. Dividend is only 75% of av. DPU. My mistake about it being less than 70% in my earlier post.
Why am I looking at it again?
While the logistic and retail sector margin is still depressed, I believe their strategy of managing e-commerce for renowned brands like Adidas is the right strategy without significantly increasing costs, they have their warehouse capability to house Adidas or any other brands' inventories.
I consider Singpost mail business a monopoly. Although anyone can send up a mail business when the sector is liberalized years ago, the fact that no one come in for the bite is a good outcome. It means its monopoly status is supported by market circumstances, not by regulation. Regulation is risky business when the monopoly rights get taken away, there is no such nasty surprise.
How much to pay for a monopoly? For SGX and SPH, I need to use 6-7% discount rate to justify current prices. For SIngpost?
9% discount rate and a reasonable 3% growth, will give a DCF valuation of $1.4. If I apply 20% MOS, then the right price to enter will be $1.12.
I don't really see why SIngpost is trading at a higher discount to other monopoly, maybe because SPH has found retail property segment for growth, and SGX has the derivatives business as well as the upswing of trading as growth. In terms of yield, SIngpost is also slightly higher than SGX, and is almost 4.8% at current price.
If you see Singpost struggling with logistic, and this is the best you can get. You get fair value, if you think logistic and retail can provide the growth, any southward movement of price will only make the counter more attractive.
I definitely will not wait till $1.12 to enter. As for what price, hmm... depends on my wallet and my bonus, and where my family want to go for holiday... hahaha
Not vested, but interested to accumulate at the right price. This is a follow up from my previous post
Here are some numbers:
While margin is getting worse, do note that revenue and OP of the cursed mail sector is not falling off a cliff, it is not even on a continuous decline. Net profits is falling, but that did not tell the full story, volume and revenue are still strong.
Look at FCF, the av. for 9 years is 160 mio. The weakest year of 130 mio is still enough to sustain the 6.5 cents DPS. 6.5 DPS need 120 mio. Dividend is only 75% of av. DPU. My mistake about it being less than 70% in my earlier post.
Why am I looking at it again?
While the logistic and retail sector margin is still depressed, I believe their strategy of managing e-commerce for renowned brands like Adidas is the right strategy without significantly increasing costs, they have their warehouse capability to house Adidas or any other brands' inventories.
I consider Singpost mail business a monopoly. Although anyone can send up a mail business when the sector is liberalized years ago, the fact that no one come in for the bite is a good outcome. It means its monopoly status is supported by market circumstances, not by regulation. Regulation is risky business when the monopoly rights get taken away, there is no such nasty surprise.
How much to pay for a monopoly? For SGX and SPH, I need to use 6-7% discount rate to justify current prices. For SIngpost?
9% discount rate and a reasonable 3% growth, will give a DCF valuation of $1.4. If I apply 20% MOS, then the right price to enter will be $1.12.
I don't really see why SIngpost is trading at a higher discount to other monopoly, maybe because SPH has found retail property segment for growth, and SGX has the derivatives business as well as the upswing of trading as growth. In terms of yield, SIngpost is also slightly higher than SGX, and is almost 4.8% at current price.
If you see Singpost struggling with logistic, and this is the best you can get. You get fair value, if you think logistic and retail can provide the growth, any southward movement of price will only make the counter more attractive.
I definitely will not wait till $1.12 to enter. As for what price, hmm... depends on my wallet and my bonus, and where my family want to go for holiday... hahaha
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Random thoughts: my advice for my MIL
Just a week ago, my mum in law told me she is going to sell her loss making SIA (bought at $14) to buy OCBC. M reaction is: huh? Why?
Her answer: OCBC won't collapse, just take dividends, her another daughter buying, because the price has fallen so much.
My reply: OCBC has fallen because market think they are paying too much for wing hang. If the deal fail, the price might rebound, but if the deal goes through, there might be further weakness, it's like buying big -small, although interest rate rising is generally a good thing for strong local banks, but the property sector is cooling and property loans might not grow as strongly. I say there are other options if not collapsing and dividends are your only 2 considerations. If u want a kick from capital growth, then I have no comments about OCBC.
She think for a while, call her daughter and told her about what I said, her daughter reply: already bought, weakness is only short term.
I told her in the long run, it might be the case, but if u just want to feed on dividends, u might be just paying yourself dividends like what happen when SIA declare dividends of $1 sometime back. She ask me, what to buy?
I said Singpost, SPH, SAT and SGX all give better dividends and is in the category of very unlikely to collapse.
Then she continue:"u ask me to sold sing post". I said "sold with good profits, is different. There is doubts about their expansion plan then, on hindsight, it is now showing better chances of succeeding, anyway your sale price is still higher than current price, u loss nothing from buying back."
Then the question again, what to buy? I told her those companies I mention are fairly valued, there is no margin of safety from any market shock, why not wait for a correction?
She said when market correct, she will
Be too scared to buy, then market run again, waste time. She just want dividend. How about buying all 4 counters? How much to buy huh?
I said whoa wait wait, u need to have money and ammo to av. Down, lets not over commit. If u must buy now, just buy 1 and buy small.
She ask which one?
I said singpost.
She said ok. How much to buy? I say, er ... How much u intent to buy? Assume U spread out to buy all 4 counters, just spend 1/8 of your money la. U want to be careful, just use 1/12.
She said ok. She proceed to buy 10 lots of singpost, then think, aiya just get 20 la. I says relax la, u retired Liao, market is always there la.
Today she look at the price, hmm fallen by 2 cents, can get more? I say, if fall further, maybe yes.
I told her based on my calculation, there is some Mos if singpost goes to 1.10. She says I wait long long...
Actually a bit disappoint she never ask why I choose singpost over others. So I continue: singpost is the only one among the 4 that has the lowest payout ratio in terms of FCF. It is always below 70% with the exception of 1 year, where they pay more than what they earned. I know SPH and the rest are paying close to 90% of FCF or earnings
For years. There is no buffer if earnings suffered. In terms of growth, singpost diversification into logistic and e-commerce is still without a verdict and with T4 and T5, SAT Seem a better bet, just as we can bet on SGX recovering from the low trading vol that is way below average. Then I remembered a bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the bushes. SPH my MIL already has it, and she had them cheap, at below $4 for donkey years.
She look at me, nodding away, although I doubts she understand. So anyway, another reason I can think of is, if sgx, singpost, and SATs all fall 5% tomorrow, which will I get? My answer is singpost. If all fall 10%? I will get SGX. Why? I dun know, I want my port to have less cyclicals and rely less on trusts and reits
Her answer: OCBC won't collapse, just take dividends, her another daughter buying, because the price has fallen so much.
My reply: OCBC has fallen because market think they are paying too much for wing hang. If the deal fail, the price might rebound, but if the deal goes through, there might be further weakness, it's like buying big -small, although interest rate rising is generally a good thing for strong local banks, but the property sector is cooling and property loans might not grow as strongly. I say there are other options if not collapsing and dividends are your only 2 considerations. If u want a kick from capital growth, then I have no comments about OCBC.
She think for a while, call her daughter and told her about what I said, her daughter reply: already bought, weakness is only short term.
I told her in the long run, it might be the case, but if u just want to feed on dividends, u might be just paying yourself dividends like what happen when SIA declare dividends of $1 sometime back. She ask me, what to buy?
I said Singpost, SPH, SAT and SGX all give better dividends and is in the category of very unlikely to collapse.
Then she continue:"u ask me to sold sing post". I said "sold with good profits, is different. There is doubts about their expansion plan then, on hindsight, it is now showing better chances of succeeding, anyway your sale price is still higher than current price, u loss nothing from buying back."
Then the question again, what to buy? I told her those companies I mention are fairly valued, there is no margin of safety from any market shock, why not wait for a correction?
She said when market correct, she will
Be too scared to buy, then market run again, waste time. She just want dividend. How about buying all 4 counters? How much to buy huh?
I said whoa wait wait, u need to have money and ammo to av. Down, lets not over commit. If u must buy now, just buy 1 and buy small.
She ask which one?
I said singpost.
She said ok. How much to buy? I say, er ... How much u intent to buy? Assume U spread out to buy all 4 counters, just spend 1/8 of your money la. U want to be careful, just use 1/12.
She said ok. She proceed to buy 10 lots of singpost, then think, aiya just get 20 la. I says relax la, u retired Liao, market is always there la.
Today she look at the price, hmm fallen by 2 cents, can get more? I say, if fall further, maybe yes.
I told her based on my calculation, there is some Mos if singpost goes to 1.10. She says I wait long long...
Actually a bit disappoint she never ask why I choose singpost over others. So I continue: singpost is the only one among the 4 that has the lowest payout ratio in terms of FCF. It is always below 70% with the exception of 1 year, where they pay more than what they earned. I know SPH and the rest are paying close to 90% of FCF or earnings
For years. There is no buffer if earnings suffered. In terms of growth, singpost diversification into logistic and e-commerce is still without a verdict and with T4 and T5, SAT Seem a better bet, just as we can bet on SGX recovering from the low trading vol that is way below average. Then I remembered a bird in hand is better than 2 birds in the bushes. SPH my MIL already has it, and she had them cheap, at below $4 for donkey years.
She look at me, nodding away, although I doubts she understand. So anyway, another reason I can think of is, if sgx, singpost, and SATs all fall 5% tomorrow, which will I get? My answer is singpost. If all fall 10%? I will get SGX. Why? I dun know, I want my port to have less cyclicals and rely less on trusts and reits
Thursday, March 13, 2014
Random thoughts: interviews
I just went for an interview for a opening of a new appointment. My prospective supervisor spent quite a bit of time preparing me, to the extend that I fell like I am doing 10 years series. I really appreciate her efforts while I doubt her approach.
Interview came, I reminded myself to frame my conversation according to the pointers my supervisor gave me, so that I will not disappoint her, but I mentally told myself not to say anything that I believe is untrue, or I dun believe in.
So well, the interview went well initially, all questions were spot on, all except the last. I have actually thought through that particular question in my work, so I gave my honest view. Apparently, my future big bosses does not agree with me. She suggest something else, which I felt is beautiful in theory but doesn't work on the ground. I did mention every environment is different, but given the circumstances I was in, I did a right call. So then she ask me to read up. Roll eyes in my heart. Another scholar...
I am not sure I understand her correctly, but to me, using investment terms, I believe in buying term
Insurance and investing the rest, keeping the two separated. She believe in integration, so ILP is a great product. Well, doesn't really matter I I fail the interview, opportunities will come my way again.
Come back to the point what is the purpose of the Interview. I went for 3 interviews in my life, one for my job, one for a scholarship, another was this. When I go for my job Interview, I wasn't sure if that is the job for me, so I decided to give my most honest answers, and I think if my honest answers don't land me the job, I might not be suitable anyway.
I did the same for the scholarship interview and fail quite badly. I realized you only speak your mind when u have many options, I consider myself very lucky that I do not have to pander to people's standard answers just to pass interviews. I rather prepare well but speak my honest view.
For people who are desperate for a job, I realized honesty could be a luxury too.
Anyway, how can one gauge my capabilities through one interview? Why do they not want to see more concrete proof? How accurate is a statement anyway?
Rat race. A reminder of one of the many reasons why I strive for financial freedom.
Interview came, I reminded myself to frame my conversation according to the pointers my supervisor gave me, so that I will not disappoint her, but I mentally told myself not to say anything that I believe is untrue, or I dun believe in.
So well, the interview went well initially, all questions were spot on, all except the last. I have actually thought through that particular question in my work, so I gave my honest view. Apparently, my future big bosses does not agree with me. She suggest something else, which I felt is beautiful in theory but doesn't work on the ground. I did mention every environment is different, but given the circumstances I was in, I did a right call. So then she ask me to read up. Roll eyes in my heart. Another scholar...
I am not sure I understand her correctly, but to me, using investment terms, I believe in buying term
Insurance and investing the rest, keeping the two separated. She believe in integration, so ILP is a great product. Well, doesn't really matter I I fail the interview, opportunities will come my way again.
Come back to the point what is the purpose of the Interview. I went for 3 interviews in my life, one for my job, one for a scholarship, another was this. When I go for my job Interview, I wasn't sure if that is the job for me, so I decided to give my most honest answers, and I think if my honest answers don't land me the job, I might not be suitable anyway.
I did the same for the scholarship interview and fail quite badly. I realized you only speak your mind when u have many options, I consider myself very lucky that I do not have to pander to people's standard answers just to pass interviews. I rather prepare well but speak my honest view.
For people who are desperate for a job, I realized honesty could be a luxury too.
Anyway, how can one gauge my capabilities through one interview? Why do they not want to see more concrete proof? How accurate is a statement anyway?
Rat race. A reminder of one of the many reasons why I strive for financial freedom.
Saturday, March 8, 2014
Sillyinvestor support BeHappyAlways's initiative to nudge Singholdings' management for Sharebuyback.
Dear readers and fellow bloggers,
Behappyalways from valuebuddies is trying to rally support from shareholders to send an letter to management of SingHoldings, asking for fairer treatment of minority owners
Below is a template of letter:
6 March 2014
Sing Holdings Limited
96 Robinson Road
#10-01 SIF Building
Singapore 068899
Dear Board of Directors and Mr Lee
We are a group of shareholders writing in to express our concern with the share performance of Sing Holdings for the past few years. We are disappointed with the Board and Management inaction towards the under performance of the share price. Shareholders' call for a share buy-back has been resisted by the Board and Management as you feel that cash could be better utilised. But after so many years, we do not feel that we had benefitted from the growth of the company as much as the management. A bonus warrants for example can be issued, rewarding shareholders while preserving cash.
A share buy back mandate and when exercised would send a STRONG signal that the share price is undervalued and that the Board and Management support and share the minority shareholders' concern. With the current bearish property market sentiment, we feel that there is no better use of funds than to buy one's own undervalued shares. Therefore we strongly recommend a share buy back exercise.
With positive net current assets and receivables due from The Laurels Project, we hope you would seriously consider a sizeable dividend payout to reward shareholders' trust in the Board and Management over the past few years.
We deeply appreciate your time and effort in considering these suggestions.
Thank You.
Yours Sincerely
Shareholder A's name
Shareholder B's name
.....
.....
Shareholder E's name
--------------------------
There are 3 things I hope to achieve.
1) If any shareholders of SIng Holdings have not heard about this movement, you can consider supporting this, they have already email the management yesterday and today. the details can be found in http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-23-page-102.html
2) Financial bloggers, if you find this movement meaningful, I think the retail investors are taken for granted in Singapore, and if you followed the thread, I do not think the retail investors are being unreasonable, you can forward or perhaps post this blog too.
3) I am showing support. Hope you will too...
Monday, March 3, 2014
2 misses- straco and UMS
Both companies were under my radar when they were some 30% to 45% lower than current price. That means I loss about 50% to 90% gains.
I was alerted to straco when it is trading at 28 cents, I owned UMS at 37.5 cents but sold early at 44 cents.
It is perhaps important to review why I give them a miss and learn some lessons.
Straco
It was a s-chip, I have doubts about its numbers, especially when another blogger highlight the low depreciation of bio assets. The yield then was rather weak, even when I project a 50% growth in dividend. But dividends more than double in 2 years. Now we know quite a bit of its cash is real, and its operations is real. ( anyone can visit shanghai)
My mistake: I used trailing dividends. More focus should be spent on its FCF generating capability, and the fact that it is growing. Too bad it is a s-chip.
UMS
Not a s-chip, with dividend at more than 10% when I bought it. Aware of its FCF strength and the cyclical sector it is in, also aware of its heavy reliance on AMAT for profits. But believe I got it with good MOS.
Why did I sell? Because the owners Andy and company is selling a significant stake in the company, and it is the second time that do it in a year. The first selling is what spark the low price which allow me to collect on the cheap. I still hang on to my shares when the news broke, then shortly they announced Andy's wife will ceased to be a director and reassigned a consultant role instead. This movement does not make sense to me as how effective can a insider be a consultant or is already not a consultant? So I finally decide to bail out.
Well, on hindsight, it was a wrong call.
I am fine with my decision as money not made is better than money lost. But I think I will really pay more attention to FCF growth, and if sell off is not too frequent or big, such that ownership of management come into question, I should have keep my steel. The FcF growth may or may not result in dividend growth, it will take 1-2 years to find out how friendly is management to shareholder, but there is a good chance of better dividends, especially in both cases, they are both relatively debt free.
I was alerted to straco when it is trading at 28 cents, I owned UMS at 37.5 cents but sold early at 44 cents.
It is perhaps important to review why I give them a miss and learn some lessons.
Straco
It was a s-chip, I have doubts about its numbers, especially when another blogger highlight the low depreciation of bio assets. The yield then was rather weak, even when I project a 50% growth in dividend. But dividends more than double in 2 years. Now we know quite a bit of its cash is real, and its operations is real. ( anyone can visit shanghai)
My mistake: I used trailing dividends. More focus should be spent on its FCF generating capability, and the fact that it is growing. Too bad it is a s-chip.
UMS
Not a s-chip, with dividend at more than 10% when I bought it. Aware of its FCF strength and the cyclical sector it is in, also aware of its heavy reliance on AMAT for profits. But believe I got it with good MOS.
Why did I sell? Because the owners Andy and company is selling a significant stake in the company, and it is the second time that do it in a year. The first selling is what spark the low price which allow me to collect on the cheap. I still hang on to my shares when the news broke, then shortly they announced Andy's wife will ceased to be a director and reassigned a consultant role instead. This movement does not make sense to me as how effective can a insider be a consultant or is already not a consultant? So I finally decide to bail out.
Well, on hindsight, it was a wrong call.
I am fine with my decision as money not made is better than money lost. But I think I will really pay more attention to FCF growth, and if sell off is not too frequent or big, such that ownership of management come into question, I should have keep my steel. The FcF growth may or may not result in dividend growth, it will take 1-2 years to find out how friendly is management to shareholder, but there is a good chance of better dividends, especially in both cases, they are both relatively debt free.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Portfolio update as of 2nd March 2014
The pictures above show my holding as of 19 December and Today, net profits/ loss including dividends does not include dividends declared but not received.
I accumulated APTT at 78 cents and divested from HPHT at 84.5 cents. Other than that, it is status quo.
I have blogged separately about HPHT, Lippomall, Lee Metals and Yangzijiang.
I believe HPHT can deliver on the 8% yield through capital management, or strong rebound from HOng Kong and Yantian ports. But the bet case scenario would have to pent out for me to have the 8% on a sustainable footing, what comes after 2014 will be a big question mark if the ports do not recover. I decide that the risk reward profile can be more rewarding if I increase holding of APTT instead.
APTT
I believe APTT has 3 major risks.
1) The poor settlement of tax provisions with Taiwan Tax Bureau
2) Runaway Capex
3) Runaway interest rate.
4) Regulation risk, mainly through re-zoning or non-issue of licenses
With the latest Quarter Report, I decided to accumulate further, when the price hardly move with the announcement of dividends and results. (Which was a surprise)
They have mentioned they expect a resolution with terms similar to that set out in the prosepctus with the Tax authorities by the end of this quarter, with a written agreement. Although it is not confirmed, I would deem it a balant lie if events turn otherwise at this stage.
They have more details on capex for the next 2 years. They project capex to be 40-50 million for 2014 and 40-60 million for 2015. This is what I expected when I study the prospectus. With 60 million as capex, they need no further loans for at least 2.5 years. Hence, I say dividend projection is safe for 2014. For 2015, if capex remain high at 60 million, they might need to drawn down loans further or distribute a more sustainable 7.5 cents, which is almost a 10% yield for me, but I believe they would drawn down more loans and keep distributions level.
If you look at the convenants, capex can go above 60 million for expansion into greater Taichung. But, what happen now is the maximum of 60 million is for both digital box upgrades and cable expansion into Greater Taichung. So the risk of runaway capex is low if they stick to what they set out to do.
For number 3, their debts and swap agreement are all now in Taiwan Dollars denomination, so the US dollars loss suffered the other time will not replay. When they used up most of the debt facilities in 2015 or 2016, and they decide to refinance their loans, a 1% increase in finance cost (assuming all loans drawn down), payout will be 6.5 cents, still an attractive 8.8% for 2015-2016, if you ask me.
For 4, the biggest risk is competition from re-zoning. It will affect pricing power and might lose subscribers. It is now the highest risk as compared to the lowest risk a quarter ago. If APTT expansion is a guide for a timeline, with them expecting to get a provisional license by the end of the year, we can expect competition to start this year in APTT home turf.
From the last quarter, operating numbers remain strong for the biggest basic cable TV, since competition is not yet in play. We should watch how their competitors can capture this market over the next few quarters.
As for non-renewal, most licences which are valid for 9 years before they are up for renewal, and the earliest any of their operators need to renew their license will be 2016. Given that the digital penetration rate in their franchise areas are ahead of schedule by that mandated by NCC (Taiwan Regulator), and recent "forced sale" of units of PRC owners by APTT, means they shouldn't step on NCC toes.
Until now, I need to highlight to readers that there is an article on nextinsight that holds a vastly different view from mine. He thinks APTT is for gamblers. Readers have to decide on their own:
http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/story-archive-mainmenu-60/924-2014/8140-chan-kit-whye-onasian-pay-tv-trust-and-ramba-energy
Golden agri
4Q results is much better, with China operations turning a profits for the whole year, and 4Q rev and profits doing better Q0Q. I brought golden agri to wait out the trough in CPO price. CPO price is going up but for the wrong reasons. It is going up because many believe supply will be reducing due to the bad weather. I would rather demand outpaced supply. Palm Oil as a edible oil is fast losing its appeal even for the masses in China, but CPO has many other uses other than end-consumers cooking oil. Anyone can see I hold a very small stake in Golden Agri, I will just wait it out. I believe demand for CPO will grow with higher use of CPO in bio-diesel. If nothing changes fundamentally, I would rather accumulate. What surprised me is that there is no negative revision to bio-assets, but a small positive increase, since CPO price has been on a downtrend for the past 3 years. The only reason that could explained this is the production offset the lower average CPO price. Hence I would rather not CPO price increase due to supply falling. Nonetheless, the last time weather caused Havoc on production, it falls by 10%. Let just hope the impact on CPO price increase is more than 10%.
Future Outlook
I am someone who will not sell at a loss easily especially for income-generating stocks. Lippomall and Sabana has disappointed me. But instead of selling, I would accumulate Sabana if it falls further to$1, I will just treat the half empty AMD building as free AEI pending, (hahaha) and wait for the industry rental market to improve. But I will get rid of these two if I am sitting on profits.
Nam Lee, is another stock i will sell soon. I hope the pending CD will push the price up closer to my purchase price, if not I will collect dividend and wait and see.
I still like YZJ, by will not accumulate as it already formed the biggest part of my portfolio.
I am looking to accumulate cash, and will more properly not add into any position anytime soon, with the exception of golden agri, perhaps. I would like to add SGX or Singpost when the price is right, if not I will just wait, and let cash increase.
Final thoughts
I believe I have most misses than hits in my selection. I have not been actively prospecting for companies either. Given that I need to adapt to a new working environment soon, I expect my blogging to be highly irregular. Blogging has enabled me to crystalline my thoughts and meet some really cool and nice bloggers. It has been a great journey, see you readers soon.
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Random thoughts: COI on Little India riot
I followed the news on the COI's finding on little India Riot.
They have praises for Lt. Tiffany. 27, from the CDF which broke away from protocol and move the body of the decreased to protect everyone. The committee also praise Sergeant Fadli Shaifuddin, 27 for charging at the rioters in attempts to assert control. Although they question what could have been done better, they have kind words for ASP Tang, the first senior officer on the ground, citing they might give him a medal, if they are in the position to do it. The committee has less flattery view of more senior officers.
The above news lead me thinking: The young were praised for their courage, their commitment to their duty and ability to think on their feet, but have words like "poor judgement" for senior officers. It might me wonder, as I progress in my career, will I be like that? From someone who is full of ideals, passionate, daring, rebellious to a conformist, conservative, routine worker?
Will I become less and less of a risk taker?
When I started my work, I have vision to touch lives, be the best I could be, and I "overworked", in my colleagues' view, I left my workplace at 8-9 pm, only to be back at work by 7.I worked on weekends too. Of course, I didn't had a family then, but hand on my heart, I wouldn't do that now too, even if my family doesn't need me.
It is a reminder to really be humble, and as I progress and manage the younger staff, to be very careful not to unintentionally dose their passion of fire, and to be a mentor than a boss, even if the whole world thinks that is a wrong approach.
Second, we can only be sure on hindsight, it is really right to charge at the rioters? We know it is properly the right thing to do if the first 90 officers all have the same guts as sergeant Fandi. If I am on the ground, what decision would I have made? I most properly would have take the conservative approach too, retreat, and stand ground.
If you ask me, after being through NS, do I blame my officers for making the wrong decisions? Sure, I do, but I follow them nonetheless. When I am working now, I have the same attitude towards my leaders. I would call them bosses than leaders. I expect them to make decisions to solve problems, if not, empowered me to make the decision, if it is the wrong call, lets share the blame together. One of my boss? She refused to make a decision and do not allow me to make a decision, so things keep hanging there, when reminded of the need to come to a decision, she ask me to approach another boss. What a loser, luckily those involved in the little India Riot didn't have anyone that fall under this worst category. So lets not be too hard of all those involved in the management or mismanagement of the Riot. Let's learn and move on.
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