Friday, May 8, 2015

What could be Mr Market's concern about LMIR?

LMIR announced a great set of results, if you ask me.

In my last post, I projected distribution to be 19.2 mio assuming no fall or raise in operating numbers or currency strength/ weaknesses.

The quarter distribution turned out to be 21 mio. While it is not eye popping as compared to a year ago, it did exceed expectations. Comparing it with a year ago is quite meaningless as the Kemang village effect will be unknown,

Looking at the currency exchange of SG/IDR

I am not crazy to do a point to point calculation, but "agar agar' looking at Oct-Dec quarter and Jan- March quarter, I do not see a significant strengthening or weakening. Going forward, however, there is obvious trend of IDR weaking throughout the Month of April. I guess this is one of the things Mr Market is unhappy about. Uncertainty. 

But it would have mean, either Kemang as the biggest mall is contributing better or the rest of the malls are holding up well, operations wise, LMIR report card for this quarter is a pass.

There is one ironical and funny statement in the presentation, slide 3:

"Weighted Average Maturity of debt facilities was 1.86 years , with no refinancing required until July 2015 "

Hello, it is 2 months away, so how would you finance this? With new debt or fund raising? Uncertainty again. Mr Market don't like.

200 mio is not a small sum to refinance, it is 125% of annualized NPI of this "good" quarter. and its debt profile is rather concentrated with refinancing every year till 2018. 

LMIR execution under Alvin is a good break from the past.

Let's hope he is able to buy another good buy and do some good management of its malls. Maybe sell some weaker malls and borrow to buy yield acretive ones.  

Mr Market will like that if he can pull that off. 


  1. Hi SI

    I didn't look through the numbers in details but it does look like an overall much better performance than last year projected.


    1. Thanks, B

      I am still in the red for this counter. But as long as as they not do anything stupid, time
      Will heal the wounds rather quickly.

      My. Break even is still 39 cents if I remembered correctly ...

  2. Hi SI,

    The good result is commendable. But Indonesia as an economy is not looking great under Jokowi new reign. Maybe we should give him some time!

    I partially divested to take some cash balancing from 0.34 I bought in the last time. But I am also still in the red overall since I buy in when price above >0.4 initially.

    1. Rolf,

      I think Jowoki is doing a good job in terms of making tough decisions ...

      I am rather comfortable with my holding, so its a hold for now

  3. Currency exchange rates fluctuate every now and then. There are trends that recur in certain months such as going down in the month April. There is so much uncertainty in the market and that is the reason why many people are unhappy about the market. However, some of the already established companies are doing quite well. Companies selling their branches that are not doing well and investing in better performing ones.