Friday, December 10, 2021

Random thoughts: These stocks will likely increase their dividends in FY 2021


I owned shares of the below mentioned counters, and hence have my biases and ulterior motives for writing this post (Evil laughs) 

1) UOBKayhian

  • 1H earning beats 2020 earnings. UOBkayhian biggest earning segment is trading commission. 
  • SGX trading volume and value for the last 11 months beats 2020 (11 months)
  • US market is seeing new high, Thailand trading volume and value for the last 11 months are also significantly higher than 2020.
  • If the 50% payout holds (which is the case for many years), there is a high probability that dividends will exceed last year 9.5 cents. (1H EPS is already 11 cents.)

2) Hotung 

  • 2020 EPS is 5.42 NT$, and 1H 2021 EPS is already 3.28NT$
  • 2021 there is frequent share buybacks, and this is NOT a yearly occurernce
  • 2021 there are 2 vested companies of Hotung that are listed. (None in 2020)
  • 2021 NTS$ has strengthen against SGD as compared to 2020

3) ComfortDelgro

  • DPS in 2021 already exceeded 2020
  • QOQ deterioration of earnings is not unexpected due to Heightened alert
  • Q4 results should bounce back.

4) YZJ 

  • Please read the wonderful article by Squirrel Drey. (One of the best analysis by bloggers for a while)
  • As rightly pointed out, steel cost has come down, and with record order book, margins should recovers.

  • Management has said the newer contracts has accounted for possible higher costs, and if the steel costs continue to be low, the mix of good and poor margins of contracts would enable better earnings
  • Main reason for increase is expectation of special dividends due to spin off of investment business

5) Lung Kee (0255 HK, dual listed in SG )

  •  1H 2021 EPS already grown more than 70%
  • However Lung Kee did not have a fixed Payout Ratio (Although it is consistently high in the last 4 years)

6) OLAM 

  • Record operational earnings in 1H
  • Intern Dividends already increased
  • Inflationary environment favours the agri-commodity sector


It is important to note that the above POSSIBLE dividends increase did not take into account any price increase that has already taken place. However, most of the price increase with the exception of Lung Kee, seems modest. 


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