Bought Raffles Medical

Raffles Medical for 2 quarters, has lost it shine as a grower. Both revenue and Profits were flat.

Before this, it was a darling because of the below:

Very consistent, isn't it? 

Now, with earnings stagnating, it show the share price hit a 52-week low recently.

 

 

An almost 1/3 fall from its peak. 

If u read around, there are many reports that state how its business might worsen. Let me summarize (Parrot):

1) Holland V Medical is fully leased but there is no spike in revenue, that means the patient load is worse than expected.

2) China expansion will worsen earning for the next 3 years. Management guided that hospital will turn around after 3 years.

3) My simple and quick Google of cancer doctors, review or doctors show names thrown out mainly from parkway and mount Alvernia. But beside these 2 quarters, their revenue is still on a good uptrend, so I will give them the benefit of doubt that the tactic to go medical services aka clinic is a good one.

So, now it is not just a "non-grower" but also a falling knife.

The reason for buying is more qualitative than quantitive. I remember referring the international SOS for reference to hospital to visit if there is emergency, when bring pupils for overseas trip in Nanjing. I believe many people relied on international SOS for reference for medical treatment because China local hospitals are really quite different from those u find in Singapore outside Shanghai. 

Next, I saw the rapid expansion of medical services aka clinic network across Singapore. These will serve as fillers to send reference to hospital. Why is this still not happening in the 2 quarters no.? I am not sure, but many of these clinics are new. Lot 1 clinic has its crowd. 

I also like the fact that past year expansions did

Not strain the balance sheet. 

I am not sure if this price is cheap, honestly. I however, is willing to accept lower earnings (but not zero profits) as they expand, and accumulate as the price go lower. Singapore market must stay strong.

The money used to buy Raffles came from some liquidation of Silverlake axis. So my cash holding is still 60%. Silverlake is still my biggest holding. 

Random thoughts: Where is your solace

This post is triggered by a post from AK. He noticed one of his reader might be at risk/ already in depression.

It reminded me of a period of difficulty, when I see only suffering. I was lucky, there was solace from home, although my spouse's family also meet with difficulty. Yup, it never rains but pour.

Ironically, the solace I seek then was work. Being with my pupils. I live by the day, waiting for the quiet of night to have some peace. 

I also know of someone who always talk about taking her life. I know of her difficulty and her unfortunate set of cards dealt to her. She did not manage to find solace, as far as I am concerned, it has been a year. 

I remember when I bantered Zen with my uni lecturer long ago, she was telling me philosophy and kindness is our defense mechanism. I didn't quite understand, she said when things happen, some people just lose it, some people has a defense. That "defense" is what I call solace.

I am a free thinker, but I do think that solace, or refuge or whatever, is built during our daily lives. It cannot be seek during crisis, it is invisible during peace time.

Finding meaning in work, is my solace. My son and my wife are my solace. My belief is the last solace. When crisis struck, it wears down the defense as time drags on. I remember operating at "zombie" mode, to avoid my mind from going wild. Believe in goodness, otherwise there is no "light"

I hope everyone try to live life to the max. U never know when life needs a withdrawal of not cash but your will reservoir. 

Even when things seem to come to a close, I am still operating at "crisis mode" for a long time, before I unwind and see light beside suffering. I cannot imagine those going through ordeals for years.

For those who are going through tough time.

1) Hang in there.

2) Don't think too much, focus on what u set to do, and just do it. Don't think of results or impact

3) Talk to people

4) Write, cry

5) Find solace, in your beliefs, in god or religion. 

Don't stop. Keep moving. Use full use of the short break, and recharge, then expends it again. 

Random thoughts: Defensive stocks?

What come to your mind?

Names or numbers?

In the past, perhaps 1-2 years ago, you might name telcos, healthcare/ heathcare reit?

The 3 telecoms are suffering from investors' anxiety without real confontation from TPG. Having another player at the table has lead to some analysts to shout which company might be merged. Is Singapore market too small for a 4th Telco? Only time will tell, but if u tell someone on the street now that M1/ starhub is defensive, but for the dividends and its cash flow, I am

Not sure if u get the same reactions from 2 years ago. Note that I dun think they are bad investment, I am vested in M1. I am questioning defensive.

Healthcare is evergreen with the aging population in Singapore and command lofty valuation for a long time. (Anything above 30 is lofty in my opinion, if growth doesn't pan out) I think many think of health stocks as growth stocks instead of defensive stocks. It might have a slightly defensive business but it might not have a defensible market price. I got confused sometimes, but I have not touch healthcare stocks yet because the valuation made its defensive business somewhat indefensivable. Again, not to say it is not a good investment, if with poor sentiments you found a company that is falling and falling with its growth prospect still possibly intact. I am not telling which is in my radar. 

Wide-moat businesses used to refer to those with a commanding monopoly or market share. I would think that Telcos with the 4th Telcos is still a oligopoly, with data market set to become even bigger, but it's scaring the shit out of investors. I wonder aloud why comfortDelgro investors, like what BT columnist pointed out, are thinking it will fare better? I agree with columnist, it is going from market share leader with a few small fries to also perfect competition of car rental. Unless regulation increase the barrier of competition, even if the tie up with uber is successful, rental still has some room to fall. Renting a car is $60-80 when done privately, still a big 30-50% cheaper than what comfort is charging cabbies, and I have friends that drive grab or uber, that like it as a filler option, earning extras and managing their commitment , even with a relief hirer, a conventional taxi driver is like a full-time job. The competition is not just on price alone. 

How about SPH, SGX and Singpost which has a local monopoly yet to be broken? The defense of a monopoly moat is broken. I dun want to be a broken recorder on disruptive technology. Again, I am watching the above companies, they might not be poor investment. 

Is there really something defensive? How about Gold? I hold gold for a while, it seems like a good hedge for Tensions.

I would think 2 things are defensive. 1) Cash but zero returns.

2) Growth, and dividends paying companies. Companies that increase dividends sustainably is the best defense. Doesn't mean the price won't drop but u can sleep knowing that market will have to pay for that cash flow going back to investor hands. But the caveat is always make sure that the price you bought is defensible too. 

I would think leveraged instructments with sustainable yield of 7% is fair and attractive value. Anything better is a bonus or that you misjudge the "growth" that is - defense buffer.

As for net cash company that is still growing, I would think anything above 5% yield is attractive.

This is just sillyinvestor agar agar thinking, you can calculate all the % of growth and the DCF etc. 

But with market showing so much character ignoring Kim, think he is hopping mad if he has shorted the markets thinking his blasts will trigger a lasting sell-off. 

What is defensible to u?

Or perhaps you think of defensive like defensive actions and mind? 

But we must not kid ourselves lei. Let me test u. "Nimble" a term make famous by AK. It's a defensive tactic, test water. Water hot, run. Fighter another day.

If u have 20k,(e-book teaching people how to invest with first 20K)  how much u invest is consider nimble?? 1% 5% or 10%

Answer? 

Please la. 20K  how to nimble? 

Lol. If u say 1-2 % is nimble. U got 200-400 to play. The commission buy and sell will wipe 10-20% of your return le.

That is not to say we should not invest if we only have 20K. But we should call it as it is. We "hoot" to learn how to market works and pray.

LOL

Random thoughts: Myths of ways to academic achievements

Views are my own only. 

1) Tuitions must be given to children because everyone has it.

This is simply not true. In my experience with schools, I know there is no simple correlation between tuition and performance, especially if parents take the attitude of "dump money; solve problem" mentality. Children are not stupid. If u dun tell them or discuss with them the reasons for tuition, they will take their tutors as just. Answers machines. 

I know of children dying to take work home because it is so much easier to be a copier at home. I know, I have children dying to do compositions at home, because the tutor will help them with their homework. Even if a child is struggling with work, it is better for kids to ask the right questions to solve their problems instead of relying tutors for answers. In such an instant, tuition to more harm than good as it create reliance. I know of kids with tutors who just do their bidding. Parents should be mindful of what their children are getting on with their tutors.

To maimise the benefits of tutors (private or center), parents need to be sure what is the objective of having that extra help, and the kids must be aware of the intentions too. The intention of chasing that last mark to get a A* would be very different from someone trying to pass a subject. Similarly, if the parents' mentality is to get a "baby sitter" to kill time for kids, then dun expect fire-works. Also, just a bit of research would let you know what are the renowned centers out there. I have as a "spy" tried to get hold of their success formula, I must say their tactics centered a lot of "memory power" of kids. If your kid is bright, (I know politically incorrect, because every kid Are suppose to be bright and every school a good school, but in reality, there is such a thing as calibre), he/she should progress fine. If he is not academic inclined and lack motivation, memory of exam "answers" is not going to work. 

2) Let the child practice and practice.

David Souza of "how the brain works" said" practice dun make perfect, it make permanent". If there is no input, no point trying to force output. You are simply conditioning the. Child for the wrong method and leaving less space in the brain for the right methods. 

I have a personal example. My wife complained my son did very badly for his Chinese Tests. I looked at his papers and said"Ok, I know what to do for his score to improve"

On the night of revision, I was caught in jam from my dad's place. My wife trying to give them

Practice papers from other schools and going through corrections with them. 

I said "stop, let me take over. They are just listening to instructions and executing and not thinking" I know my son problem is in vocabulary and I know his school like to set questions that appear in the texts but not necessarily from the list of vocabulary stated in curriculum. So I ask them to read the texts, link up the vocabulary, retell the story. Then go on to another chapter and recall the previous. My son has a above average memory and it makes it a lot easier for

Me. His score jumped. Not excellent but good enough for me. He needs input, not more practices. The practices can increase the chance to hit 100% if done correctly, but I am not interested in drill and practice yet.

Now, my SIL keep harassing my wife to let our  kids do practice paper. Lucky my wife didn't like the idea and we decided that some practices might be ok torwards the end of the holiday but not everyday. She got my son books to read (input) which is way better.

3) We need to spend long hours and burn midnight oil to achieve the marks we want

I think frequency and clarity of learning objectives is more important. I told my weakest class, just promise me that They will revise 15 min everyday for their vocabulary and they will pass their Chinese paper and the score at section A will pull up the scores. Not everyone pass, but almost all show an improvement of marks and some pass for the first time for years. 

Having 15 min everyday with clarity of what is to be achieved is much better than having 3 hours once a week going through everything.

Conclusion:

 

I think the theme here is clarity and mindfulness. Never just dump your kids to practices or tuition centers and then scold them for not performing and ask them why are they wasting their money.

Also, there are others with the hadicap of no extra-help. They are not coping that well academically but I think I would do worse in their shoes. My kid told me she can't come for my remedial, I ask why? She told

Me mum dun allow, I call and ask why, she says she need to work and she need to take care of 3 years old brother. If only her brother older.

Looking at all my "underachieving friends" in school, (went to several wakes, unfortunate mean to meet up) all of themare street smart and doing reasonably well

In life. Dun be too disheartened if you kid dun do too well in school ok. Some of them might be miserable enough 

Random thoughts: POSB Smart Buddy Program

The buddy is a smart watch. 

My son has one. This is a cynical post. Be warned

I think it's not a bad product. And POSB marketing is brilliant! Get the parents to request school to implement it, and parents and child get a free watch. 

The thing is I felt offended IS that schools are like sheeps jumping over loops. Still let media trumpet their cashless initiative. Of course there is agenda, support government drive go cashless Ma.

But, why POSB over others? Does school

Monitoring the spending habits and balance of pocket money help kids develop better money habits? Magic ward still exists? Schools not supposed to endorse any product and services remember? Even healthy fresh milk. Now, POSB can get away with it and it's like they are doing everything a favor. Hello, u locking up these young kids with a saving account, and then the bank get to monitor the transactions, and the unspent money becomes "savings" locked up automatically. 

Puppet masters, and puppet. Puppet still so proud of it. 

Maybe it can be "win-win" for parents? They win big, parents take some crumbs. For others, they are sheeps slaughtered for wool and they are still neighing "Papa"

Random thoughts: My Chinese Posts are doing better?!!

Warning: Bo Liao post

I am just very surprised when I took a look at the stats for my posts.

I should blog more in Chinese than in English or write about financial stuff.

You know what? Top country source is after Singapore is United States, Russia, and then Ukraine?

You mean so many of them read Chinese? Or there are more audiences in Singapore that read Chinese than I expected? The only Chinese majority country is no. 8 Hong Kong

My top posts for Company prospecting for the last 2 years (Have not been doing it recently) are for
Ascendas Reit, Accordia Trust and SIngpost. With pageviews of 1600 to 1800. The rest of my musings on investing is around 600-800? agar agar.

Chinese posts?

Top post is 2300; 随心笔：我的家-黄浦路, then around 1900 for 随心笔：无奈. Average views for these Chinese musings are around 1000-1400??

A bit weird right? LOL

I have my first post that cross 10k in my history of blogging.

Random thoughts: Overpaying by 400% for years

It is also not investment related.

I might need to change my blog name, and remove the word "investor"

Call it sillyheartlander

Lee Metals Q2 results sucks

Q2 results is out, it's profits fell almost 65% compared to a year ago, and 2017 is supposed to be a stronger year when demand for construction and hence steel is concerned.

In my earlier post:

"If we track BCA demand, 2015 is a bountiful year. Billing was 35 Billion. 2016 was 26 billion. 2017 minimum range is from 28 billion. The recent budget announcement has 700 mio public project brought forward. Of course, there is a possibility of demand falling short, but that is highly unlikely as these projects are local and mainly government projects (2/3 of projected demand) which will continue."

I also mention strong Steel price as a boon for Lee metals. I dun think I got the Macro picture wrong, as the management states as much as the higher revenue is due to higher steel price. The BCA website also mention the higher demand for construction is partly due to spillover effect of last work year delayed projects, so 1 H 2017 should show this demand.

Yet management says they are affected by competition and private residential slowdown. The fact that Lee metals is faring much better than BRC is not comfort to me, because at such EPS, 2 cents dividends a year is at risk. 

Operating numbers such as inventories, payables, receiveables, are also high as compare to previous years especially u consider the fact that steel

Merchandising arm is completely wound down. 

Yet the comments by management  is morbid.

"The company will have to continue to stay competitive to SURVIVE in this challenging conditions" 

I wonder if I have been looking at the wrong data, instead of Justine looking at construction demand, which didn't include the 700 mio from new town, biddari, if included would easily mean at least 10% more demand in 2018 in the worst case scenario.

 

I perhaps should look at the following 3:

 

 

 

I have not decide what I will do with my holding, to hold or cut loss. There is so much talk about property revival. Land sales figure show only very muted uptick