Sunday, March 6, 2022

Random thoughts: Steady portfolio in chaotic times.

My portfolio is 10 percent in the green, but I have several misadventures, with counters down by 50 percent or more, such as TianNeng Power international, and several others such as Alibaba 9988

The portfolio is actually not at it lowest, for the past 1 year, despite the HK tech meltdown, Russia War, and inflation fears.

Looking back, the last 6 months provide several reflective points, which I will pen down 

1) Portfolio should include both realised and unrealised profits and also cash.

I used to ignore unrealised profits or loss in looking at my portfolio, and realised how foolish I have been. Several counters that I bought for a trading gains, like Geely, Alibaba, JD has gone from a profits to loss. Geely especially, has met target of 50 percent gains, and yet, I didn't do anything. 

2) Thematic reallocation of portfolio.
When inflation is the scare, I pick up Olam, a commodity player. Commodity plays tend to do well in inflationary environment, and so far it worked well.

Reopening theme plays have not turn out too well. 

But restructuring plays like Capitaland to capital investment, sembcorp Demerger, and Keppel vision 2030 restructuring all turn out relatively well. 

Diversified portfolio need various themes, and I will continue to explore this, together with geographic diversification. I recently re-enter US tech stocks again.

3) Dumb luck.

ST ENGINEERING and BAE are bought, for their cash flow and defensive business. When war broke out, both perform well, although I rather there is no war. I hope war ends quickly and won't not mind the 2 counters knee jerk corrections.

4) Averaging down is a double edge sword.

1 counter, TianNeng Power, has been average down thrice. Hitting for ceiling/ threshold of 5 percent and singlehandedly pull the whole HK portfolio into RED. 

I think I might need some review of Av. Down rules again. 

Of course, there are cases of Averaging down working well, like For Olam, etc.

5) Accumulate up will work too. 

I did that for Hotung, YZJ, Comfort Delgo when I predicted that earning will improve, and pushing up dividends. It works well for all except Comfort Delgo. 

The idea of earning projections and expansion is important in our decision making process. Don't just buy low price, buy when there is low expectations, and earnings can beat those expectations.

6) Diversification gives me a good night sleep.

Non of my counters are above 5 percent of my total portfolio values. In fact, I have more counters in the 2- 3 percent range than 5 percent range. My portfolio value moves up and down like a snail. 

I guess is nothing exciting. But since most of the counters gave a dividend, as long as the portfolio stays above water, I will just milk the dividends and occasional opportunitsic trades.

7) Entry point is everything..Almost.
I created the bulk of my portfolio during the Covid onset scare, when STI is around 2700. 

Yup, I went in early. It bottoms around 2300. 

But it is still a reasonable entry points for most counters. 


2 comments:

  1. 10% up in a year when almost everyone else is losing money is very good performance!
    Congrats!

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