Correction to "Random thoughts: The singapore property cycles." Post

I made a error in my calculation, and I think I need to point it out. Thank you to Chan Yuan, who leave comments that alert me to the error and generate more discussions. My apologies. Will be more careful with numbers.

I mentioned a growth rate of 2% on non resident population with means 320k more residents every year. The correct figure should be 32k

I also state there is a supply of about 30k units without buyers in the pipeline, that will come on the market over the next few years. 

There is also a link provided by him.

http://population.sg/resources/population-composition/#.VFX564rXfCR

Of which he think only 25% of the residents will get a unit. I assume he use EP, S pass and students.

It is a significant error as the verdict is different. In my original post, I think 30 k surplus over a few years can be absorbed by real demand.

Now, assume all the 25% buy Condo, or become rental demand for condo, and 10% of newly wed go for condo, there is only a 10.7 k real demand to be absorbed. 

If u ask me, how likely is s pass holder buying a condo, I think it is highly unlikely.

So 25% seems generous.

So we need the HDB upgraders ( as pointed out by Chan Yuan) and investors 

To pick up the rest. 

Highly unlikely that there will be no more GLS over the next few years too. 

So supply should be higher than projected, investment and speculative demand should be kept in check due to rising interest rate, and already above average vacancy rates.

I personally know of many people that lament it is tougher to be PR now, so the PR equation will not be significant IMO, given the low base, and the HDB as a first absorber. 

Elections is due latest by 2016. Do not think they will do a U turn anytime soon in terms of letting in PR and workers.

So yes, I now agree that 30K is a concern